Thursday, September 24, 2009

Condo News The subsale breakdown

As posted in www.h88.com.sg on 23 Sep 2009 by John

H88.com.sg Condo News The subsale breakdown

The subsale breakdown

The recent subsale market data published by Savills Singapore revealed some really interesting nuggets of information. We ranked the subsales by gains, by losses and so on and the situation became a whole lot clearer.

Come see. We’ve got a nice PDF you can take home with you too!

(We’ve taken what we could from the original table in the Business Times and did some fancy Excel work on it. View the original table here.)

Most Subsale Gains

The Centris at Jurong turned out to be very popular. Next came One Amber near East Coast, Casa Merah at Tanah Merah and The Metropolitan at Redhill. Apparently Casa Merah benefitted from recent sold-out launch of Optima @ Tanah Merah.

Most Subsale Losses



Montebleu at Balestier took the top spot when it came to losses. Coming in an unwanted second is The Fernhill by Stevens Road. Casa Merah also came in third in the subsale losses scale, but obviously this was a result of the high number of subsales it had.

Gains to Losses (Top 20)

This we feel is a more ‘accurate’ view of the subsale data. We took the number of gains as a percentage of the number of subsales and ranked the top 20.

Carabelle in the West Coast stood out prominently with a 100% record, even as they registered a high number of sales (41). The gain for that condo is an acceptable 10%. Note that it’s pretty close to the upcoming Hundred Trees. Another stand out is Southbank at North Bridge Road where all 26 of it’s subsales went through with an amazing gain of 45%!

Centris also did very well too, considering the high number of subsales, it converted at 98.57% and garnered an 18% gain. Apart from the '100-percenters', other condos of note include One Amber and The Quartz which both registered a 19% gain.

Gains to Losses (Bottom 10)




With the exception of Montebleu, The Parc Condo and Botannia, the other seven spots were taken by more upmarket condos in District 4 (Sentosa) and 9 (Orchard). As expected, upmarket condos were hit hard.

Interestingly enough, Carabelle, Botannia and The Parc Condo are all in the West Coast along the AYE and are quite close to each other. Even though all three share a somewhat similar location, only Carabelle did very well. Weird.

Biggest Gains and Biggest Losses

We'll not spend too much time here. Obviously the upmarket condos would take the top spots with their higher sale values and wider price fluctuations. It's high stakes, high risk gambling speculation at those places. The Thomson condo Sky @ Eleven is the odd one, appearing in both these tables and located furthest away from the city.

No point looking at dollars, let's look at percentages...

Biggest Average Gain by Percentage




Now things become juicier. Look at Southbank, 45% gain! If only we had a time machine! One Amber crops up again here. The Quartz in Buangkok deserves a shout out here too. One of the rare mass market condos appearing in this list.

Biggest Average Losses by Percentage



No surprises here with The Sail and St. Regis taking the top spots. The Fernhill appears once more in the losers, something must be going on there.

Winners and Losers
So many tables, so many numbers. Which condo is ultimately the winner and the loser here? (Obviously, luxury condos would be the biggest winners and losers due to their volatile fluctuations, but apart from them...)

Clearly, top spot goes to Southbank for that 100% gains-vs-losses and the crazy 45% gain. Coming in second is a toss-up between Jurong's The Centris (98.57% gains-vs-losses, 18% gain) and East Coast's One Amber (97% gains-vs-losses, 19% gain).

We think The Fernhill takes the crown as the speculator's bitter pill. And it's a giant pill to swallow. It has only 1 subsale that made a gain of 3% (which would be negated by stamp duty and other expenses) and the rest lost money at one of the highest average loss of 16.3%. Montebleu deserves a special mention too, having the highest number of subsale losses among all 43 condos here.

[UPDATE 24 SEP 2009:We've got some news for you -The Fernhill is disqualified! The name Fernhill sounded familiar, so when we used our tag search for Fernhill, we found out that it was a single China investor who got burnt badly thanks to the DPS. Read about it here and here. Montebleu is now promoted!]

The lesson learnt here is there is no hard and fast rule as to what factors decide which condos made the highest or lowest gain. One can argue proximity to MRTs could play a part with increasing the gains (The Centris, Casa Merah, The Metropolitan, etc), that's quite plausible. But there are many condos elsewhere that did well, without any MRT nearby.

And it's clear that luxury condos offer the highest reward. The downside is that you need a good $5 million spare change to take that fall. But in the end, unless you have a crystal ball that can look into the future, try not not bite off more than you can chew.

As promised, the PDF of the tables.

What do you think? Your comments here.

Source: Savills Research and Consultancy. Extracted from this table in the Business Times - "A look at the leaders of subsale market this year". Read also Strait Times - "'Flippers' hit in sub-sales"
Note: Savills tracked the caveats up till 28 Aug 2009.


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